Eco-Geostrategy and Alliance Transformation Under Climate Stress in the Indo-Pacific

Introduction

The Indo-Pacific today is confronting a dual transformation driven by accelerating climate pressures and intensifying geopolitical competition. The region, already among the world’s fastest warming regions, has witnessed a surge in extreme rainfall patterns, marine heatwaves, tropical cyclones and sea level rise, as identified in the IPCC’s AR6 report, which found that each of the past four decades has been successively hotter, and human activity has already raised global temperatures by 1° C above pre-industrial levels. These environmental stresses are not merely ecological disturbances, but they are progressively reshaping strategic behaviour, maritime governance and alliance structures. However, this essay argues that climate stress functions as a structural variable within the regional security complex, altering threat perceptions, driving new forms of cooperation and catalysing institutional adjustments or alliance transformation among regional and extra-regional actors.

Framing the Indo-Pacific through Regional Security Complex Theory by Barry Buzan,  highlights how climate change intensifies patterns of interdependence and vulnerability, compelling states to integrate environmental risks within their security agendas. Similarly, the Securitisation framework developed by the Copenhagen School helps explain how climate stress has shifted from a developmental issue to a security priority, legitimising new policy instruments, military involvement and multilateral coordination. Liberal institutionalists argue for the role of cooperation and collective action. 

These frameworks illustrate the emerging eco-geostrategic landscape where climate imperatives increasingly intersect with geopolitical competition.

Eco-Geostrategy and regional security in the Indo-Pacific region

The Indo-Pacific’s climate-security landscape is increasingly shaped by intensifying violent weather events and geopolitical pressures. According to the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, in 2021 alone, over 57 million people were highly affected by climatic disasters in this region, making it the world’s most disaster-impacted region. These extreme events — ranging from super cyclones and rapid-onset floods to marine heatwaves and coral bleaching — reveal that military preparedness in the Indo-Pacific maritime theatre cannot be separated from the region’s escalating climate emergency. Naval operations and the military actions remain heavily dependent on carbon-intensive heavy fuel oil, and strategic procedures such as carrier landings, patrols and high-intensity training exercises. Naval armoured vessels carry substantial environmental footprints. Thus, climatic changes now directly affect operational readiness, logistics and maritime domain awareness.

     According to the Regional Security Complex Theory given by Barry Buzan and Ole Waever, which places great importance on geographical proximity, the Indo-Pacific region already constitutes various regional security complexities characterized by overlapping maritime, economic and political dependencies. Climate stress strengthens this by creating shared risks that transcend borders such as disasters, migration flows, coral degradation, fisheries collapse and disruptions to maritime trade. These types of shared risks successfully alter the functional logic of security, compelling states to move beyond traditional military-centric postures toward environmental and resilience-oriented strategic planning.

 The securitisation of climate change is evident in the discourse of regional actors. For better understanding, B. Neumann (1994) proposed an approach called the Region-Building Approach, which not only assesses how regions are constructed, but also how region-builders bring them into existence. It transforms climate change into a boundary-making device where actors identify shared threats, cultivate common responsibilities and justify new institutional arrangements. 

For Small Island Developing States, this discourse provides agency, allowing them to shape regional priorities by foregrounding vulnerability as a core regional experience and enabling states to justify expanded military roles in humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and maritime domain awareness, whereas for large powers, it offers a normative justification for deeper presence in the region, framed not as militarisation but as regional stewardship.

National and Regional Responses

India’s dynamic evolving approach exemplifies how national strategies adapt under climate stress. Though historically oriented towards continental security due to unsettled territorial disputes along its northern borders, India in the 21st century witnessed a decisive maritime shift. Highlighting that serious concerns have erupted in regard to “good maritime order rooted in adherence to the established international law and norms” (Khurana 2019). India’s revival of IORA (1997), the articulation of SAGAR (2015), and its formal adoption of the Indo-Pacific construct in 2018 reflect an expanded understanding that non-traditional security threats such as climate change require securing the East Indian Ocean and the wider Western Pacific. This approach aligns with complex interdependence theory, which states that states facing multidimensional challenges diversify their instruments of power and broaden their arenas for cooperation. Addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, PM Modi outlined India’s vision by emphasising on open, inclusive and rules-based regional order grounded in respect for sovereignty and international law (MEA 2021), which was operationalised through the Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative (IPOI - 2019), consisting of seven cooperation pillars such as maritime security, maritime ecology, resource management, capacity building, disaster risk reduction, scientific collaboration and maritime connectivity (MEA 2020). It reflects India’s recognition that geopolitical stability in the region is increasingly intertwined with ecological resilience.

The national approach differs from regional and global actors. The European Union adopts a climate-first Indo-Pacific strategy, prioritising sustainability and green partnerships, whereas India employs a security-led but climate-integrated model. Meanwhile, this strategic shift parallels the growing Indo-Pacific engagement of major actors such as the United States, Japan, Australia, ASEAN, France, Germany and the European Union. Several states have also launched complementary initiatives, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) led by the United States, which aimed at reshaping supply chains, digital governance and clean-energy transitions. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its expanding presence in the South China Sea have added complex geo-economic and ecological pressures, further stressing the region’s fragile marine system.

Theoretically, these variations reflect competing forms of institutionalism and strategic pragmatism. While the EU leans toward normative institutionalism, India and the US adopt pragmatic models that fuse traditional security concerns with climate resilience. The interplay of institutions highly reveals how climate change can simultaneously facilitate cooperation and intensify rivalry in the region.

The Quad and Climate-Driven Alliance Transformation

The gradually increasing role of regional organisations such as the ASEAN, the East Asia Summit (EAS), and the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) has also been adjusting their positions and policies in response to the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific. To know more in depth about climate security strategies, let’s examine both formal and informal aspects. Australia has been integrating discussions on the impacts of climate change into its national security discourse, involving supporting initiatives such as the Climate Change Action Strategy and the Australia-Pacific Climate Partnership to assist partner nations in adapting to climate change. Similarly, the United States acknowledges the necessity of cooperating with China on climate change issues, emphasises the role of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in climate security cooperation and highlights the significance of collaborating with regional organisations like ASEAN for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. The geopolitical tensions, especially between the United States and China, territorial disputes, and military buildup in the region can overshadow climate security concerns.

However, Quad’s evolution demonstrates how alliances adapt under structural pressures. As liberal institutionalists predict, climate change has served as a catalyst for deeper cooperation among Quad members by generating common vulnerabilities that require coordinated responses.

The establishment of the Quad Climate Working Group, Q-CHAMP and the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) reflects the institutionalisation of climate security within a multilateral framework with its expanded investments in electro-optical monitoring systems, data sharing technologies and resilient maritime infrastructure. As climate change is a collective action problem, there is a built-in compulsion for addressing the root causes through international cooperation. Gardiner (2011: 398) aptly calls the climate change problem a ‘perfect moral storm’, at the base of which lies his thesis of ‘theoretical ineptitude’ (p. 407). This institutional shift demonstrates a growing acknowledgement that environmental stress is no longer a peripheral issue but a central determinant of Indo-Pacific strategic behaviour and alliance transformation.

Conclusion

The Indo-Pacific region is significant as a geostrategic location for geopolitical tensions and competition among major powers, which reveals that climate change is no longer a peripheral issue but a structural force shaping regional order. Whether assessed through securitisation theory, Regional Security Complex theory, or liberal institutionalism, climate stress emerges as an influential driver of alliance transformation and strategic adaptation mechanisms. A realist understanding might support a climate treaty with mandatory limits to GHG emissions if national interests are better served. Liberals argue that without funding for adaptation, many vulnerable developing countries might not remain viable partners in trade and investment, while regime theorists focus on mitigation rather than adaptation. These frameworks signify how different IR theories explain why Indo-Pacific states pursue eco-geostrategic alliances.

Various multilateral institutions such as APAN, the Q-CHAMP and regional maritime domain awareness platforms offer pathways for building systematic resilience in the region. Yet, the future stability of the Indo-Pacific depends on political will and strategic trust.

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By Alisha

Alisha is a Political Science (Hons.) researcher working at the intersection of climate security, Indo-Pacific geopolitics, and climate-induced migration. Her research critically examines the evolving nexus between environmental change and geopolitical strategy, informed by experience in policy research, advocacy, and institutional analysis.

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